Forecast: U.S. Macro With Alt. Scenarios

Moody’s Analytics U.S. Macro Forecast Database with Alternative Scenarios, offer clients a baseline forecast that represents the estimate of the most likely path for the respective economy through the current business cycle (50% probability that economic conditions will be worse and 50% probability that economic conditions will be better), as well as more than a dozen standard alternative scenarios to examine how different types of shocks will affect the future performance of the U.S. economy.

This service is also available with regulatory scenarios for loss-forecasting and stress-testing portfolios based on projections provided by the Federal Reserve.

Moody’s team of 100 economists use our large scale econometric model to produce forecasts of all the sectors of the economy.  This model type excels in exploring the economy-wide implications of alternative assumptions about the future such as those used in stress-testing exercises. Forecasts include the detailed composition of both spending and industrial activity, the entire maturity yield curve, many other interest rates, and prices for goods, services and assets throughout the economy.

• Over 1,850 macroeconomic, demographic, and financial variables.
• Includes GDP, residential and commercial real estate starts and prices, detailed industry employment and the unemployment rate, commodity prices and producer price indexes, a full complement of interest rates, banking, consumer and corporate credit quality, construction, income, and demographics.
• Updated monthly and have a quarterly periodicity, a 30-year forecast horizon and all available history 
• Baseline plus more than a dozen alternative scenarios and a Consensus scenario updated each month
• Forecasts are validated and transparent. Clients can view model methodology, equations and forecast assumptions on the DataBuffet interface.
• Forecasts delivered via API or DataBuffet interface for easy downloading, charting, mapping, and scheduling.