Base Package

CreditForecast.com provides insight into how the U.S. and local economies affect consumer credit behavior and performance. This unique tool provides history and forecasts for a wide range of household credit, economic and demographic variables at a detailed level of geography, enabling you to examine, segment and stratify credit risk and economic data across states, metropolitan areas, and rest of states.

	Current Credit Conditions	Metro Credit Trends	State Credit Trends
Segments	View 7	View 8	View 9
Geography	STATE	MSA	STATE
Vintage
Origination Credit Score
Current Credit Score
Term
Personal Income
Borrower Age
Presence of a Mortgage

Key Features

Data

• Credit trend data for 24 product categories and subcategories, by origination and current risk score bands, as well as term bands for installment loans
• Detailed level of geography (metropolitan areas, rest of states, states, U.S.)
• Quarterly origination vintages
• Detailed economic and demographic data
• Blended credit and economic series
• Historic and forecast risk scores (VantageScore, Equifax Risk Score, Bankruptcy Navigator Index)
• Multiple forecasted scenarios, including a baseline most probable scenario and an alternative downside scenario, as well as the three Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review scenarios

Historical Data

The historical credit data are made available from 100% of the Equifax National Consumer Database. As information is being added to the database, it goes through a rigorous quality-assurance process, including automated and manual reviews, to ensure the highest accuracy possible. The credit data are sourced from the full Equifax credit database and include consumers with at least one active trade. This results in approximately 220+ million consumer records in a given month. Selection always occurs at month’s end so that the results are not affected by in‐month reporting fluctuations. Monthly historical files starting with June 2005 were used. Therefore, full “open‐to‐close” vintage data are available starting with July 2005, while information on trades in older vintages–when available from the consumer credit files–is also included. Equifax developed special credit trend attributes that aggregate the consumer file into attributes specifically intended for monthly trending. These attributes consider only trades with activity in the last three months and look only at current delinquency statuses in order to focus on the true state of credit (balances, high credits, delinquencies, etc.) in the given month. These attributes were calculated for each consumer file and then aggregated to the ZIP code, county, metropolitan statistical area, and state levels. This will allow CreditForecast.com to quickly adapt to any future changes in county or MSA definitions.

Score Bands

Origination and current risk score-level classification is done at the consumer level, based on VantageScore 3.0 – Odds Scale (score range 300‐850). There are 11 score bands, allowing the user flexibility in identifying consumer risk profiles of interest.

Term Bands

Installment loans (auto, consumer finance, first mortgage, HELOANs, and student) are further classified into loan term bands. Loan term is reported by lenders and financial institutions and represents the number of months an installment loan is to be paid. Creditforecast.com provides loan term on installment loans in fixed ranges or bands at the time of originations.

Geographic Segmentation

• U.S.
• 53 states/territories
• 457 MSA/rest‐of‐state areas (complete coverage of the entire country)

Vintages

CreditForecast.com provides quarterly vintages starting from 2005 until current. The annual vintages start in 1996 and go through 2004; with older vintages aggregated into the 1990 and 1995 cohorts which represent pre-1990 and 1990 to 1995 respectively. Forecasted vintages are available for the next 5 years on a quarterly basis.*

Consumer Credit Data Series

For each of the categories, data are available for the following variables:

PERFORMANCE METRICS

• Total outstanding number of trades
• Total outstanding balance in dollars
• Current number of trades
• Current balance in dollars
• Total delinquent, 30 DPD, 60 DPD, 90 DPD, 120+ DPD or collections number of trades
• Total delinquent, 30 DPD, 60 DPD, 90 DPD, 120+ DPD or collections balance in dollars
• Number of trades that are in default, bankruptcy or closed positive
• Balance in dollars of loans that are in default, bankruptcy or closed positive
• Foreclosures started for residential products

ADDITIONAL METRICS

• Number of trades with positive balances
• Scheduled payment amount in dollars
• High credit (credit limit) in dollars
• Utilization rates

CreditForecast.com also provides delinquencies and terminal states (default, bankruptcy, closed positive) as rates as a percentage of outstanding trades or as a percentage of outstanding dollars.

CreditForecast.com provides origination estimates such as number of trades, maximum high credit (credit limit) in dollars, as well as maximum balance drawn in dollars.

Forecast Data

Projections of the credit, economic and demographic variables are available with a quarterly/monthly periodicity and a five‐year forecast horizon*. The forecast database includes a baseline most probable scenario and an alternative downside scenario, as well as the three CCAR scenarios. The forecasts are updated quarterly.

The economic and demographic forecasts are produced using a detailed econometric model system by Moody’s Analytics. A description of this system is available upon request. The credit forecasts are produced with a model developed using a pooled time series, cross‐sectional specification. Estimations are done at the state level with fixed effects utilized when appropriate.

*Please contact us if you need to have extended/life-time forecast horizons to meet CECL requirements.

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